Teori keputusan
Teori keputusan (atau teori pemilihan tidak boleh dikelirukan dengan teori pilihan) ialah kajian mengenai pilihan ejen.[1] Teori keputusan dapat dipecah menjadi dua cabang: teori keputusan normatif, yang menganalisis hasil keputusan atau menentukan keputusan optimum yang diberikan kekangan dan andaian, dan teori keputusan deskriptif, yang menganalisis bagaimana agen sebenarnya membuat keputusan yang mereka lakukan.
Rujukan
sunting- ^ Steele, Katie and Stefánsson, H. Orri, "Decision Theory", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2015 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), URL =
Bacaan lanjut
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- Arthur, W. Brian (May 1991). "Designing Economic Agents that Act like Human Agents: A Behavioral Approach to Bounded Rationality" (PDF). The American Economic Review. 81 (2): 353–9.
- Berger, James O. (1985). Statistical decision theory and Bayesian Analysis (ed. 2nd). New York: Springer-Verlag. ISBN 978-0-387-96098-2. MR 0804611.
- Bernardo JM, Smith AF (1994). Bayesian Theory. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-92416-6. MR 1274699.
- Clemen, Robert; Reilly, Terence (2014). Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools: An Introduction to Decision Analysis (ed. 3rd). Stamford CT: Cengage. ISBN 978-0-538-79757-3. (covers normative decision theory)
- Donald Davidson, Patrick Suppes and Sidney Siegel (1957). Decision-Making: An Experimental Approach. Stanford University Press.
- de Finetti, Bruno (September 1989). "Probabilism: A Critical Essay on the Theory of Probability and on the Value of Science". Erkenntnis. 31. (translation of 1931 article)
- de Finetti, Bruno (1937). "La Prévision: ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives". Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré.
- de Finetti, Bruno. "Foresight: its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources," (translation of the 1937 article in French) in H. E. Kyburg and H. E. Smokler (eds), Studies in Subjective Probability, New York: Wiley, 1964.
- de Finetti, Bruno. Theory of Probability, (translation by AFM Smith of 1970 book) 2 volumes, New York: Wiley, 1974-5.
- De Groot, Morris, Optimal Statistical Decisions. Wiley Classics Library. 2004. (Originally published 1970.) ISBN 0-471-68029-X.
- Goodwin, Paul; Wright, George (2004). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (ed. 3rd). Chichester: Wiley. ISBN 978-0-470-86108-0. (covers both normative and descriptive theory)
- Hansson, Sven Ove. "Decision Theory: A Brief Introduction" (PDF). Diarkibkan daripada yang asal (PDF) pada July 5, 2006.
- Khemani, Karan, Ignorance is Bliss: A study on how and why humans depend on recognition heuristics in social relationships, the equity markets and the brand market-place, thereby making successful decisions, 2005.
- Klebanov, Lev. B., Svetlozat T. Rachev and Frank J. Fabozzi, eds. (2009). Non-Robust Models in Statistics, New York: Nova Scientific Publishers, Inc.
- Leach, Patrick (2006). Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions. Probabilistic. ISBN 978-0-9647938-5-9. A rational presentation of probabilistic analysis.
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- Miller L, Milner B (1985). "Cognitive risk-taking after frontal or temporal lobectomy--II. The synthesis of phonemic and semantic information". Neuropsychologia. 23 (3): 371–9. doi:10.1016/0028-3932(85)90023-5. PMID 4022304. S2CID 31082509.
- Morgenstern, Oskar (1976). "Some Reflections on Utility". Dalam Andrew Schotter (penyunting). Selected Economic Writings of Oskar Morgenstern. New York University Press. m/s. 65–70. ISBN 978-0-8147-7771-8.
- North, D.W. (1968). "A tutorial introduction to decision theory". IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics. 4 (3): 200–210. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.352.8089. doi:10.1109/TSSC.1968.300114. Reprinted in Shafer & Pearl. (also about normative decision theory)
- Peirce, Charles Sanders and Joseph Jastrow (1885). "On Small Differences in Sensation". Memoirs of the National Academy of Sciences. 3: 73–83. http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Peirce/small-diffs.htm
- Peterson, Martin (2009). An Introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-71654-3.
- Pfanzagl, J (1967). "Subjective Probability Derived from the Morgenstern-von Neumann Utility Theory". Dalam Martin Shubik (penyunting). Essays in Mathematical Economics In Honor of Oskar Morgenstern. Princeton University Press. m/s. 237–251.
- Pfanzagl, J. in cooperation with V. Baumann and H. Huber (1968). "Events, Utility and Subjective Probability". Theory of Measurement. Wiley. m/s. 195–220.
- Raiffa, Howard (1997). Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty. McGraw Hill. ISBN 978-0-07-052579-5.
- Ramsey, Frank Plumpton; "Truth and Probability" (PDF), Chapter VII in The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays (1931).
- Robert, Christian (2007). The Bayesian Choice. Springer Texts in Statistics (ed. 2nd). New York: Springer. doi:10.1007/0-387-71599-1. ISBN 978-0-387-95231-4. MR 1835885.
- Shafer, Glenn; Pearl, Judea, penyunting (1990). Readings in uncertain reasoning. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann. ISBN 9781558601253.
- Smith, J.Q. (1988). Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach. Chapman and Hall. ISBN 978-0-412-27520-3.